With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability that each team will be relegated from Serie A, according to the bookmakers.
Team | Odds | Probability |
---|---|---|
Udinese | 13/8 | 38.10% |
Empoli | 5/2 | 28.57% |
Frosinone | 3/1 | 25.00% |
Cagliari | 12/1 | 7.69% |
As of 3 May 2024, according to the odds, the favourite to be relegated from Serie A is Udinese, best priced at 13/8 with William Hill.
The odds mean that the probability for Udinese to be relegated is 38.10%.
The bottom three teams in Serie A at the end of the season are relegated to Serie B, replaced by the top two teams and the play-off winner of the second tier. Serie A recently changed the rules for tiebreakers as well, which apply to both the relegation and title fight. If two teams finish on the same points, it will be decided by a one-off clash instead of going by goal difference or head-to-head.
This actually happened in the 2022/23 season of Serie A, when Hellas Verona and Spezia finished on the same points. The do-or-die clash took place at neutral ground, more specifically at Sassuolo's Mapei Stadium, and Verona prevailed 3-1 after four goals in the first half. The Bentegodi side thus escaped relegation, while Spezia failed to do so.